Anticipating MPC Interest Rate Decision

Matichon•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Krungsri Global Markets predicts the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the policy interest rate at 1.00% during its August 26 meeting.

•Krungsri Global Markets expects the MPC to keep interest rates at 1.00% on August 26.
•NESDC reported Q2/2026 GDP growth of 1.9% and revised the 2026 annual GDP forecast upward to 2.2%.
•The US Treasury announced an increase in buybacks of long-term government bonds starting September 9.
•The Thai Baht reached a 2-month high despite foreign selling of Thai stocks and bonds.

•Krungsri Global Markets predicts the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the policy interest rate at 1.00% at the August 26 meeting.
•Krungsri Global Markets cites low economic expansion and temporary inflation that is expected to return to the Monetary Policy Committee target by the first half of 2027.
•NESDC reported Q2/2026 GDP grew by 1.9%, slowing from 2.8% in Q1/2026, and revised the full year 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 2.2%.
•Conflict in the Middle East impacted the economy and caused Thailand to have a current account deficit for the first time in 8 quarters.
•The Thai Baht closed at 32.68 Baht/Dollar, having traded within the range of 32.64-33.16 Baht/Dollar.
•The US Treasury will increase buybacks of 10 to 30-year government bonds from 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars from September 9 to November 4.
•The Federal Reserve Chair is scheduled to give a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28.

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Krungsri Global Markets(กลุ่มงานโกลบอลมาร์เก็ตส์ ธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา จำกัด (มหาชน))

A division of Bank of Ayudhya providing economic forecasts and market analysis.

Monetary Policy Committee(คณะกรรมการนโยบายการเงิน (กนง.))

The body responsible for determining the policy interest rate.

NESDC(สำนักงานสภาพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ (สภาพัฒน์))

The government agency that reports GDP growth and economic forecasts.

US Treasury(กระทรวงการคลังสหรัฐ)ℹ️

The US government body that announced an expansion of long-term government bond buybacks.

Federal Reserve(ธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (เฟด))ℹ️

The central bank of the United States whose chair is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region where conflicts have impacted the economy and Thailand's current account.

Jackson Holeℹ️

The location of an academic seminar where the Federal Reserve Chair will deliver a speech.