Academic warns Middle East conflicts may push oil to 100 dollars

Khaosod•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

An academic and Ministry of Energy sources warn that Middle East tensions could drive global oil prices toward 100 dollars per barrel in the second half of the year.

•Praipol Kumsup expects global crude oil prices in the second half of the year to range between 80-90 dollars per barrel.
•Conflict between the United States and Iran could push oil prices to 100 dollars per barrel if transportation routes, production sources, or refineries are affected.
•The Thai government may consider reducing refinery margins or excise taxes to mitigate the cost of living for citizens.
•A Ministry of Energy source predicts diesel prices may move near 100 dollars per barrel and not exceed 120 dollars per barrel.

Overview

•Praipol Kumsup predicts global crude oil prices will remain high in the second half of the year, moving in the range of 80-90 US dollars per barrel.
•Praipol Kumsup warns that oil prices could hit 100 US dollars per barrel if conflicts between the United States and Iran intensify or impact oil infrastructure in the Middle East.
•Praipol Kumsup states that retail oil prices in Thailand will increase following the direction of the global market.
•Praipol Kumsup suggests the government could reconsider reducing refinery margins to slow the increase of retail prices.
•Praipol Kumsup notes that reducing excise taxes is an option the government typically uses only in necessary cases due to the direct impact on state revenue.
•A Ministry of Energy source expects diesel prices to be near 100 US dollars per barrel and not exceed 120 US dollars per barrel, while gasoline is expected to be between 90-100 US dollars per barrel.
•A Ministry of Energy source reports that several refineries are still unable to operate at full capacity despite the end of fighting between the United States and Iran.
•The Ministry of Energy will consider the status and liquidity of the Fuel Oil Fund to determine its use in mitigating impacts on the public.

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Key Quotes

Praipol Kumsup

"The situation at this time is still worrying because global oil prices have risen above 90 dollars per barrel, and there is a possibility they will move up to 100 dollars per barrel if tensions in the Middle East widen."

สถานการณ์ในเวลานี้ยังน่าเป็นห่วง เพราะราคาน้ำมันโลกปรับขึ้นมาอยู่เหนือ 90 ดอลลาร์ต่อบาร์เรลแล้ว และมีความเป็นไปได้ที่จะขยับขึ้นถึง 100 ดอลลาร์ต่อบาร์เรล หากความตึงเครียดในตะวันออกกลางขยายวงกว้างมากขึ้น

Key Entities

Person

Praipol Kumsup(พรายพล คุ้มทรัพย์)

Former Dean of the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University and an independent energy academic.

Organization

Thammasat University(มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์)ℹ️

The university where Praipol Kumsup served as Dean of the Faculty of Economics.

Ministry of Energy(กระทรวงพลังงาน)ℹ️

The government body providing insights on oil price trends and the Fuel Oil Fund.

Fuel Oil Fund(กองทุนน้ำมันเชื้อเพลิง)

A fund whose liquidity will be considered to help manage fuel prices for the public.

Place

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

The region where conflicts are monitored for their impact on global oil prices.

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A country involved in conflicts with Iran that may affect oil prices.

Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️

A country involved in conflicts with the United States that may affect oil prices.